Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf28560c334c48f1e6a5a7f91e60ae00637b963ce11070d0a71388ff7cc37beb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 55c | 715.96$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.96 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 45c | 607.69$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.89 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 416.32$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 49c | 377.13$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…cac7backed Yes | 32c | 314.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 287.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 230.02$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 40c | 208$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 46c | 192.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 50c | 182.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.44 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 151.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 145.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 119.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 117.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 100.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 94.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 54c | 91.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 86.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 73.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 72.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 71.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 68.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 64.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 60.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 31c | 58.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 57.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 74c | 56.8$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 20c | 51.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 49.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 49.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 47.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 60c | 47.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 71c | 45.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 36c | 42.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 28c | 36.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 68c | 35.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…623abacked Yes | 45c | 34.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 33.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked No | 52c | 32.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 71c | 27.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 68c | 25.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 48c | 25.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 67c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 70c | 20.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.