Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd2bef6163a095ce911c7266352f84964092d8f1143138c229407b868bcc872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 714.14$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.65 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 436.84$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 429.28$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 4c | 367.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 301.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.06 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 54c | 299.97$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 50c | 248.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 211.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 194.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 55c | 192.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 50c | 149.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 450 | 59.1%266 W · 184 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 34c | 122.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 121$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 120.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 908 | 29.2%265 W · 643 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 47c | 105.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 47c | 96.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 92.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 92.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 76.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 72.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 49c | 71.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 53c | 69.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 61.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 76c | 60.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 59.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 51.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 49.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 49.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 39.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 550 | 26.9%148 W · 402 L | -66.5wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 60c | 39.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 39.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 37.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 60c | 37.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 47c | 36.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 835 | 42.4%354 W · 481 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 33.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed Yes | 46c | 33.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 60c | 33.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 32.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 46c | 27.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb11…6147backed No | 56c | 26.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 57c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 22.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,926 | 62.8%1,210 W · 716 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…7083backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 17.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 15.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.