Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf557b26e01a88de86ede4f4334c1011a8df70268c5ae6bd7d7507011ea7c021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 42c | 508.46$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.02 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 53c | 300.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 59c | 211.72$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf3…b74abacked No | 67c | 119.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 103$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 100.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.81 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 45c | 76.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed No | 50c | 74.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 71.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 61.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 48c | 61.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 55.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 77c | 53.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae99…1e43backed No | 60c | 50.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…a5c2backed No | 60c | 50.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 29c | 38.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 37.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.