Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Atalanta end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf58eb71380841e340cfb79c32c1f2a0cd156a0d48a20c0d76af3a2ce97796b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62c6…55acbacked Yes | 20c | 2,920$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 1,575$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.02 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 1,005$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…b26abacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 601$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 19c | 557.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes | 20c | 198.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 20c | 195.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0148backed Yes | 20c | 193.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 80c | 162$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…bcd8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…e978backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…f42dbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 20c | 64.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…be9dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…aff4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…2dfdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Atalanta end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-17?No won
- Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-09-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.