Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5c43cfbe450a74cac1209ac4c56313cc2b30d29ee5333aee307dfeea825f2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 1,252$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 42c | 1,158$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.11 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 51c | 287.61$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 250.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 224$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 196$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 191$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 49c | 161.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 53c | 160.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 50c | 159.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 49c | 144.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…cca4backed Yes | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 51c | 128.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 59c | 126$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 49c | 102.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 93.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 58c | 91.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 86.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 51c | 78.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 73.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 56c | 73.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 39c | 53.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 56c | 48.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 59c | 42.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 41.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 38.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 54c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 65c | 26.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5abbbacked Yes | 51c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 50c | 22.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…7561backed Yes | 61c | 18.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.