Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5f3566b0f69c1f056bca48d900fce28f4396e260d6713f2284eef91294dc3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 420.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 12c | 383.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 304.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 13c | 293$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 282.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 262.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 22c | 188.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 22c | 179.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 21c | 157.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 143.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 79c | 139$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 124.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 100.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 100.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 85.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 82.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 13c | 79.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 38c | 75.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 67.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 73c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 57.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 57.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 26c | 52.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 49.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 49.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 37c | 43.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 31c | 43.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 28c | 40.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…2df0backed Yes | 27c | 39.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 28c | 39.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 38.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 27.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 26.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 68c | 25.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 66c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 73c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 76c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 74c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 76c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 67c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.