Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be8a285df7263161eb57a8e4916d01afc3a09dcc1505b0ce7afe20e7f6903f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 39c | 1,417$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.78 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 929.55$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.36 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 633.11$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 551.41$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…20febacked Yes | 72c | 415.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 50c | 389.45$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.3 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 386.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 48c | 374.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 330.13$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 38c | 329.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 324$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 75c | 301.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 275$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 51c | 253.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 244.26$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 40c | 243.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 239.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 57c | 233.98$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 28c | 231.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 37c | 223.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 49c | 215.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 213.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 51c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 198.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 197.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 30c | 193.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 75c | 192.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 49c | 188.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 61c | 143.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 140.04$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 53c | 134.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 50c | 131.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 51c | 128.81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 127.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 27c | 127.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 49c | 124.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 99.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 53c | 92.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 89.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 72c | 89.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 58c | 86.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 48c | 84.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 61c | 73.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 37c | 68.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 31c | 64.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 64.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 50c | 64.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 48c | 62.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 62.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 62.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 62.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 51c | 59.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…7438backed Yes | 48c | 59.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe721…867fbacked Yes | 45c | 55.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 65c | 55.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 54.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 51c | 50.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 50.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…8a20backed No | 57c | 49.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 44c | 48.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 47.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 32c | 47.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 46.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3522…ec07backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 44.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 44c | 42.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 42.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 49c | 42.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 38.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 38.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7372…0537backed No | 56c | 37.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e0…03d2backed No | 49c | 35.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eda…fb8ebacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.