Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5827ce2e1522d755a14c035d94f6ec95c99734fb652134d47e7245214d580fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 78c | 672.12$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.42 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 467.04$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 453.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 359.27$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 29c | 295$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.64 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 292.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 276$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 219.39$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 219.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 203.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 22c | 169.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.7 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 138.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 126.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 70c | 122.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 26c | 113.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 11c | 107.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 65c | 103.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 19c | 96.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 63c | 95.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 95.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 66c | 94.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 94.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 23c | 94.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 39c | 93.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 89.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 86.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 71c | 85.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 82.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 66c | 79.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 66.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 76c | 64.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 64.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 62.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 62.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e69…5f67backed Yes | 16c | 61.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 74c | 60.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 54.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 44c | 53.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 65c | 51.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 76c | 50.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 48.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 46.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 56c | 44.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 24c | 41.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 78c | 38.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 35c | 36.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c3…3014backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…3257backed No | 77c | 29.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 27.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 21.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 77c | 21.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 80c | 20.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…0261backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 19.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed No | 68c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…ebeabacked No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.