TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
FC St. Gallenof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, FC St. Gallen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,494

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica28c812.89$226 inLost-$226.4516940.2%68 W · 101 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab45…f5e0backed FC St. Gallen76c759.1$577 inWon+$182.18850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked FC St. Gallen72c754.33$543 inWon+$211.2196947.5%460 W · 509 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica24c679.25$163 inLost-$163.022,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica7c482.44$34 inLost-$33.852,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked FC St. Gallen75c40$30 inWon+$10.247649.4%235 W · 241 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed FC St. Gallen78c38.46$30 inWon+$8.462920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa06…74c3backed FC St. Gallen73c27.39$20 inWon+$7.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed FC St. Gallen80c25$20 inWon+$54751.1%24 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4acb…ddd3backed FC St. Gallen72c20.32$15 inWon+$5.691450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.