TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FC St. Gallenof Sport Lisboa e Benfica, FC St. Gallen
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,518 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3ed…9f79backed FC St. Gallen55c27,036$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,035.753339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c8,858$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,251.841163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+27.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica38c4,734$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.292,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FC St. Gallen53c4,377$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.311,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica45c3,592$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.0916940.2%68 W · 101 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica24c3,201$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.486330.2%19 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3208549.4%42 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica47c2,500$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.8166150.5%334 W · 327 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica46c2,500$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.6669448.8%339 W · 355 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked FC St. Gallen53c1,932$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.922,99042.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L+9.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica45c1,800$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81010249%50 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c1,543$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.7996947.5%460 W · 509 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c1,282$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.5474155.9%414 W · 327 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c1,236$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.631,03346.1%476 W · 557 L-3.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica43c1,162$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6688048.2%424 W · 456 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica43c1,162$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.661,02247.5%485 W · 537 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica45c993.41$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.5665535.6%233 W · 422 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica46c970$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed FC St. Gallen57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3445358.5%31 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed FC St. Gallen52c766$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.682,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked FC St. Gallen52c750$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3602751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica42c656.51$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8681440.5%330 W · 484 L-21.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed FC St. Gallen52c596.87$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6555545.8%254 W · 301 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd360…2eabbacked FC St. Gallen80c587.5$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+41.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica17c583.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.881,60438.9%624 W · 980 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35b1…8962backed FC St. Gallen80c499.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c489.76$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.611,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d62…5409backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c448.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202360.9%14 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda03…fa78backed FC St. Gallen56c436.77$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed FC St. Gallen53c320.75$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.754045%18 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13212254.1%66 W · 56 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed FC St. Gallen51c299.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1473633.3%12 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked FC St. Gallen56c268$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica13c249.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.498446.4%39 W · 45 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica43c208.07$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114e…dcefbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed FC St. Gallen56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed FC St. Gallen55c176.55$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ff…8a60backed FC St. Gallen52c163.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked FC St. Gallen52c140$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.216443.9%72 W · 92 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c27…54f2backed FC St. Gallen52c134.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.621822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0903…3d87backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica39c132.41$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica30c125.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.092,16737.6%815 W · 1,352 L+5.7wins0.00per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a7…164bbacked FC St. Gallen56c124.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked FC St. Gallen55c124.12$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0897346%448 W · 525 L-4.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd8d9…1059backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c105.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.473161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb730…e9c2backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica50c100.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503122.6%7 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed FC St. Gallen52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487146.5%33 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed FC St. Gallen54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9931842.1%134 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c98.53$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2877855%428 W · 350 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…85b1backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c97.96$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica11c91.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0878344.8%351 W · 432 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked FC St. Gallen55c87.72$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.471957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica47c86.78$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6765549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8f…f96abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica36c78.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8711839.8%47 W · 71 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4acb…ddd3backed FC St. Gallen51c75.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.921450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica50c75.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5911833.9%40 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c74.94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.885046%23 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica17c64.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8679532.2%256 W · 539 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica43c62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.668261%50 W · 32 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica46c59.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4247649.4%235 W · 241 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FC St. Gallen55c59.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5950154.7%274 W · 227 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed FC St. Gallen56c58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.523661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica47c57.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9611168.5%76 W · 35 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed FC St. Gallen54c56.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1279354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e32…45b5backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica46c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica45c54.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.591,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked FC St. Gallen65c53.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6645348.3%219 W · 234 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed FC St. Gallen55c52.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x819a…4b03backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221520%3 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-62.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica28c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5327554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a30…b094backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica44c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.552937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica46c40.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6825%2 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed FC St. Gallen52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.469354.8%51 W · 42 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c36.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed FC St. Gallen54c36.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5623951.5%123 W · 116 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…eceebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica47c36.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked FC St. Gallen51c34.56$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8236356.5%205 W · 158 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ba8…354abacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica37c33.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed FC St. Gallen73c33.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8429654.1%160 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked FC St. Gallen53c31.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7427545.8%126 W · 149 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked FC St. Gallen80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.255558.2%32 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d6…8704backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6471…04bbbacked FC St. Gallen56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica47c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.18747.1%41 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fed…e9cabacked FC St. Gallen52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a6…541ebacked Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c28.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Sport Lisboa e Benfica49c26.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136142.6%26 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed FC St. Gallen55c26.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc9…ed40backed FC St. Gallen56c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b33…d653backed FC St. Gallen52c22.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.753951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.