MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa36faa4c83c62ad81aa72abe748de4aa97ae611f532463923d07fd64cca424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 56c | 30,000$16,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,200 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 28,953$12,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,739.2 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 45c | 3,849$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.99 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 3,511$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 1,320$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 55c | 1,044$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 55c | 1,002$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.87 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 45c | 228$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 56c | 216.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 83.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…480ebacked Over | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Over | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 55c | 37.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 45c | 30.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Over | 45c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Over | 45c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 54c | 22.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.