Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FC Porto beat FC Midtjylland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa73e9144c255deb7889727c4d35c931eb913ef7c87905f1ca0f0e9a4cd5a45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 29c | 2,043$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 22c | 1,945$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.87 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,769$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 77c | 774.23$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.23 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 70c | 457.01$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 22c | 399.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 23c | 196.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 145$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…7ceabacked Yes | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe9…e00ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 21c | 74.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…c301backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…40b6backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c60…f367backed Yes | 77c | 28.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…e316backed Yes | 79c | 26.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…9143backed Yes | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…3e33backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 75c | 23.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto beat FC Midtjylland?this page
- Will FC Midtjylland beat FC Porto?No won
- Will the match between FC Porto and FC Midtjylland end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.