Mls · resolved market
San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfba376ebe0b955f1e2555d905a9006218c175bb28d09839648b815701bf16f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 52c | 1,936$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 38c | 1,900$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.99 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 1,659$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.04 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 1,463$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.6 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 35c | 931.91$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 54c | 928.53$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Over | 49c | 880$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 56c | 832.65$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.37 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…dff2backed Under | 44c | 784.66$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 73c | 694.7$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 62c | 520.44$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.31 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.34 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 40c | 280$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 80c | 250.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Over | 48c | 197.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 176.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 60c | 138.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 55c | 130.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 45c | 128.95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 117.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 62c | 108.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 38c | 106.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 88.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 58c | 81.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…41b4backed Over | 65c | 72.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Over | 60c | 68.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 56c | 64.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…522ebacked Over | 60c | 56.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 50.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…48a4backed Over | 52c | 47.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 47c | 42.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 63c | 38.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 46c | 35.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 46c | 28.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 61c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 62c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)San Diego FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: San Diego FC (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.