MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfd5076aa1dd745be8b3eeb28f2776a059de8c498ebd5937303e5e611777ed8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5461…92bebacked Over | 45c | 4,460$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 2,673$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,894$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 901$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 57c | 888$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 43c | 865.2$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 7c | 739.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 8c | 539.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 410.27$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.42 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 8c | 324.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 292$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 222$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 57c | 199.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 193.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 130.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 42c | 90.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 58c | 79.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 42c | 76.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 58c | 68.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 68c | 46.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.