MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f4601a99956344b059fe1e410bab46434d365511c55eee860faf65e7223d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 14,923$5,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,252.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 13,079$8,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,075.95 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 5,138$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,288.22 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 4,989$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.47 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 2,529$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.14 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 1,507$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.2 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,260$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.2 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 563.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.51 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 510.81$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.7 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 505$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 461.35$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.74 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 429$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 380$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 324.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…6266backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 288.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Baltimore Orioles | 15c | 266.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Tampa Bay Rays | 65c | 261.17$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…5c37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 254.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 211.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 134.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 108.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 18c | 95.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 17c | 92.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 61c | 84.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 73.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 68.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 62.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 59.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 54.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 47.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 44.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 43.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…da7bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 31.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 21.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…b90bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 20.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 75c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.