Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe032ddc54103f71b8aaec186198d9af783c8a151dae91721bce3c2bb1e6ae736
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 1,046$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 346.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.66 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 15c | 188.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 188.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 27c | 161.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 158.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 157.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 118.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 44c | 118.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 115.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 50c | 100.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 64c | 99.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c1…12cebacked No | 18c | 98.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 25c | 98.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 86.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 26c | 82.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 34c | 77.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 75.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 72.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 70.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 64.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 64c | 56.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 47.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 55c | 46.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 45.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 34c | 42.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 72c | 41.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 51c | 39.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 31.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 36c | 30.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 29.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 56c | 27.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 62c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 49c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 22.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 47c | 21.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 47c | 21.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 20.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 77c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.