Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c3779ff9b846f991b7af2825aa13a38c06188365406f2f09498f11f3a971bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 9,787$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,099$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 72c | 573.25$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.79 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…015ebacked Yes | 7c | 313.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 248.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 243.16$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 199.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 188.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 34c | 169.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 33c | 162.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 147.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 139.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 37c | 131.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 28c | 129.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 124.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 40c | 123.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 121.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 115.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 32c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 106$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 105.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 103.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 29c | 101.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 97.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 18c | 97.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 74c | 95.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 90.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 65c | 86.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…7421backed No | 76c | 78.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 78.22$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 74.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 64c | 69.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 66.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 34c | 60.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 25c | 57.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 22c | 56.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 25c | 56.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 32c | 51.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…cd21backed No | 64c | 51.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 32c | 51.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 74c | 47.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 44.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 70c | 42.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 65c | 41.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 40.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 28c | 39.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 33c | 30.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 35c | 30.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 30.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 35c | 30.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 68c | 29.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 28.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 21.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 20.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 75c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.