CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03ea99181b8b48c5085a4e03cd8d7c62870c994c327e266ac41830c4c655a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CYBERSHOKE Esportsof megoshort, CYBERSHOKE Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed megoshort | 9c | 11,049$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.67 | 1,407 | 38.9%547 W · 860 L | -41.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed megoshort | 6c | 2,130$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 421 | 54.6%230 W · 191 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked megoshort | 15c | 1,334$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed megoshort | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed megoshort | 6c | 973.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…2482backed megoshort | 4c | 951.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked megoshort | 2c | 875$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 163 | 11.7%19 W · 144 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked megoshort | 13c | 720$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…8c32backed megoshort | 13c | 590.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.15 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed megoshort | 5c | 572$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 135 | 37%50 W · 85 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked megoshort | 12c | 558$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed megoshort | 11c | 522.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed megoshort | 10c | 343.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked megoshort | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed megoshort | 12c | 256.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 694 | 45%312 W · 382 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…0806backed megoshort | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked megoshort | 9c | 240$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 379 | 22.2%84 W · 295 L | -43.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked megoshort | 14c | 231$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked megoshort | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked megoshort | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed megoshort | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…3952backed megoshort | 15c | 139.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 141 | 39.7%56 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked megoshort | 16c | 135.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…8e00backed megoshort | 9c | 126.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…0944backed megoshort | 10c | 125.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed megoshort | 16c | 124.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed megoshort | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 WinnerCYBERSHOKE Esports won
- Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winnermegoshort won
- Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5)megoshort won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.