Tennis · resolved market
Vancouver: Yosuke Watanuki vs Hayato Matsuoka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe043078bd06536408a1e9b049f8d7d5ffadb2ad1ddee182f7b53ff80810518c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hayato Matsuokaof Yosuke Watanuki, Hayato Matsuoka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yosuke Watanuki | 18c | 3,446$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.15 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Yosuke Watanuki | 6c | 2,221$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Hayato Matsuoka | 39c | 1,055$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.64 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…998bbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 58c | 328.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4f…2c7bbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 31c | 319.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yosuke Watanuki | 53c | 310.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…2642backed Yosuke Watanuki | 69c | 307.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 57c | 297.7$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 31c | 260.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.7 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Yosuke Watanuki | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 443 | 49%217 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…6e6fbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 47c | 164.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Hayato Matsuoka | 34c | 154.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Yosuke Watanuki | 66c | 152.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Yosuke Watanuki | 37c | 147.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 237 | 38.8%92 W · 145 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Hayato Matsuoka | 36c | 125$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 39c | 105.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…17c5backed Yosuke Watanuki | 36c | 103.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 66c | 86.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 48c | 75.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yosuke Watanuki | 49c | 74.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yosuke Watanuki | 64c | 74.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Yosuke Watanuki | 66c | 70.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Yosuke Watanuki | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 396 | 48%190 W · 206 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323e…1ddabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 32c | 67.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 635 | 37.6%239 W · 396 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Hayato Matsuoka | 64c | 66.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hayato Matsuoka | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hayato Matsuoka | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 76c | 57.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Hayato Matsuoka | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Yosuke Watanuki | 34c | 54.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Hayato Matsuoka | 63c | 51.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yosuke Watanuki | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yosuke Watanuki | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Yosuke Watanuki | 53c | 49.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…0a8cbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 33c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 464 | 40.5%188 W · 276 L | -36.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 48c | 39.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked Yosuke Watanuki | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…b543backed Hayato Matsuoka | 34c | 36.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…9481backed Hayato Matsuoka | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Hayato Matsuoka | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03dd…49c8backed Yosuke Watanuki | 51c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 468 | 51.5%241 W · 227 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Yosuke Watanuki | 53c | 23.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,159 | 69%800 W · 359 L | +56.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yosuke Watanuki | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf8…093bbacked Yosuke Watanuki | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…898ebacked Hayato Matsuoka | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vancouver: Yosuke Watanuki vs Hayato Matsuokathis page
- Set Handicap: Matsuoka (-1.5) vs Watanuki (+1.5)Matsuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.