MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe067dfd4cda81638a5546742e10e50bbe248e03c1c40bbda6cf51af8e26e69ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.99 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 1,092$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 57c | 971.98$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.6 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 58c | 898.52$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 893.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 66c | 743.11$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 699.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 55c | 634.18$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 58c | 431$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 420$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 302$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.16 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 41c | 270.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.26 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 254.76$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 189.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 53c | 179.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 43c | 124$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 42c | 103.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 39c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 32c | 91.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 58c | 85.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 72c | 68.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 56.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 23c | 50.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 45.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 48c | 43.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 73c | 37.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 73c | 36.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 46c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 46c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 46c | 23.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…802bbacked Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 60cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.