MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6342585b31e31de313465d61c218a2ecfaaa996f6e8e9a75575a44081f286914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $302,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $302,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b20…3ab0backed Under | 53c | 274,770$144,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,889.46 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 130,774$61,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,463.67 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Over | 47c | 72,723$34,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,179.95 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 70,000$33,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,599.99 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 5,154$2,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.2 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 3,225$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.49 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.56 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.99 | 454 | 51.3%233 W · 221 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 2,068$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.89 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 1,829$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.89 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 1,164$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.08 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 1,129$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.37 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,043$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.64 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 356 | 43.5%155 W · 201 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 49c | 1,024$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.76 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 54c | 999$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.54 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 18c | 880.32$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 37c | 699.89$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.96 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 608.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.53 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 531$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 509.43$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.93 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 504$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.2 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d23…251cbacked Over | 54c | 332.77$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 17c | 315$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 271.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 242.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Over | 30c | 235.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 234.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 227.01$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 46c | 218$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 17c | 203.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 53c | 183.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 47c | 163.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 140.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 137.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…a7f6backed Under | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 48c | 86.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 78.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 78.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 53c | 51.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 52c | 46.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 46.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 44.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 35.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 47c | 32.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 51c | 20.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 77c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.