MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe770af3f71e4f8d46e6c1264f83686dfb72ee99b30439538a1e2209907a4469c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 3,273$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.49 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 2,098$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.22 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 1,271$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.07 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 699.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.4 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 486.62$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.53 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 443.22$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 365$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.33 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 355.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 215.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 79c | 148$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.58 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 79.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 50.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 27.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 24.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 22.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.