Earnings · resolved market
Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe091e96fd31a4aed29e14f79fd6b88830f87e32909fe8dcf2dcb2e4f4157ded2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 20c | 1,268$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 78c | 361.58$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 361.22$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 321.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 78c | 199.98$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked No | 23c | 153.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 19c | 151.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 302 | 15.2%46 W · 256 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 145.51$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 18c | 142.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 17c | 139.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d1f1backed No | 21c | 118.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…b09cbacked No | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 20c | 106.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 78c | 100.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 98.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 16c | 91.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked No | 26c | 83.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 74c | 78.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…ec5abacked No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 18c | 66.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…4629backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 50.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…f78ebacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b5…b465backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbf…b6cabacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9326…54eebacked Yes | 80c | 28.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…b9bcbacked Yes | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…84e8backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ea72backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…7b21backed Yes | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.