MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0ad15f72c05c5b97fbcfe1ff9d61f139f6c6a735518ca0d1c53a4d83bf1a637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x986b…12e9backed Under | 49c | 4,091$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.49 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 51c | 3,050$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.49 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 950.26$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.13 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 734.29$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.15 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 552.09$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.21 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 61c | 549.49$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.18 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 50c | 324$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.47 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…a54bbacked Under | 50c | 289.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 9c | 264.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 58c | 249.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 38c | 236.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 51c | 208.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 48c | 204.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.07 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 162$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Over | 51c | 152.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 51c | 150.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.62 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 130.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 51c | 73.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…d816backed Over | 51c | 73.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Over | 51c | 52.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 45.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 43c | 45.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…76f1backed Over | 51c | 37.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Over | 50c | 32.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…bdc9backed Under | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 72c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 18.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.