MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1da591e111089fd408f48e232b31f984909bea2065c167acf9445e166932e104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 31c | 2,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 60c | 1,444$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.4 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 40c | 735.2$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.05 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 719.17$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.5 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 69c | 467.74$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 4c | 419.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 61c | 410.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 66c | 371.35$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 34c | 359.09$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 342.07$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 29c | 330.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 303.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 70c | 299.51$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 45c | 299.34$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.63 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 280.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 70c | 255.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 72c | 247.33$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 67c | 224.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 68c | 221.66$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 19c | 210.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 68c | 174.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 138.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 33c | 125.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 13c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Under | 61c | 79.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 64c | 78.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 21c | 72.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 47c | 66.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 61c | 63.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Under | 60c | 58.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 40c | 53.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 46c | 52.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 52.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Under | 27c | 48.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 28c | 41.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 36.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…76f1backed Under | 59c | 32.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 64c | 29.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Under | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b12…100bbacked Over | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…78a4backed Under | 61c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 65c | 20.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.