MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38438d50dfb655079ec40ae548c50a9d0883212d8bc5d1cbb6f928971dd717b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x986b…12e9backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 53,877$28,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,554.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 50,000$23,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,500 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,550$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 870$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 767.52$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.51 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked San Diego Padres | 79c | 613.66$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies | 18c | 544.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 464.18$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.85 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Colorado Rockies | 21c | 446.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 402.85$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 376.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.81 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 373.22$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 354.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 354.02$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 350.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.32 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 339.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 219.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.27 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 209.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 194.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 189.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Colorado Rockies | 59c | 179.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 178.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 151.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 141.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 130.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 129.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 119.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Colorado Rockies | 24c | 107.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 755 | 44.2%334 W · 421 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 105.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 396 | 53.5%212 W · 184 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…bea0backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 104.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 90.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 74.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 71.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 67.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 65.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 64.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 50.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 49.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Colorado Rockies | 40c | 41.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 38.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Colorado Rockies | 78c | 37.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 52c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…1868backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 31.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 30.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6c…0a74backed Colorado Rockies | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.