TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,306 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffb…119dbacked No10c576.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5943021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No28c480.7$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.834,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes77c402.35$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.328943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.534624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes21c238.65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6474023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed No25c212.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1211883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No76c202.41$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.26253.2%33 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No12c179.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.23,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No46c170.32$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.922,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes32c155.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6517135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c150.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.818,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes29c141.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.321,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c128.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.417,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes70c117.65$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5460739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No22c111.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.081,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No17c101.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No60c96.92$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes15c92.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9115834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes28c83.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3965934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…f366backed Yes13c79.04$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.647321.9%16 W · 57 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c76$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.674,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No41c75.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9451553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No29c75.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8464021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes77c75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes34c73.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2919848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c72.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.524,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c72.57$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.512,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No47c72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.135,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes48c67.39$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7623269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204b…75f3backed Yes40c66.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1622171%157 W · 64 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed No73c66.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.442744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c65.18$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No17c62.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7139158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No73c58.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.231,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No29c56.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.344659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes18c56.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.337631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No76c54.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7550860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked No76c52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.264269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes79c50.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.734060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes24c49.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca5f…1e74backed Yes80c49.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8511342.5%48 W · 65 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes25c49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7743430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No29c48.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes35c46.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.482268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes72c45.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.551241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.955,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No80c42.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No57c41.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7438258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes64c40.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5323463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x862f…7e34backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9bd…b428backed Yes76c39.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-56.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes63c36.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa12f…9f41backed Yes30c35.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+231.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes72c34.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.681,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No41c34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9411363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No77c32.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c32.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No43c31.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.542,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes64c31.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0523673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No35c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4172952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd136…ef46backed Yes76c28.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.037665.8%50 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No75c28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No63c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6416456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No75c27.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0348672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked No70c24.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.268067.5%54 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No52c24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No71c21.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9217071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes51c20.41$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.110745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7520161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes79c19.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.041,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd54…5749backed Yes79c19.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.112934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No73c17.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.927376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes67c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.737356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No78c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.149055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.