Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa97c86ed589c4f109239c701d5091f952ed62f6ae887ea373b37d67d8102ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 1,685$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 433.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 383$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 39c | 143.92$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…c0ddbacked Yes | 54c | 130.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 57c | 114.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 108.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 22c | 97.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 89.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 58c | 81.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 79.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 75.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 67.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 23c | 66.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 62.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 61.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfd…430dbacked Yes | 19c | 58.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 46c | 54.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…0712backed Yes | 40c | 49.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 41c | 49.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 46.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 43c | 42.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 42c | 41.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 47c | 41.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 39.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 62c | 35.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 45c | 33.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 32.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 46c | 32.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 31.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 57c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 53c | 29.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 72c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 46c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 50c | 24.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 72c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 55c | 23.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…b5acbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 53c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 53c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.