Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe100a0d622d08fb62ed4f94572e64f6faf07df3c62a5254101034bc1f652b628
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 563.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 42c | 406.05$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.73 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 378.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 364.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 361.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 27c | 317.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 316.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 292.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 287.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 68c | 264.63$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 248.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 239.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 56c | 203.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 67c | 202.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 199.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 65c | 121.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 115.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 65c | 115.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 113.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 106.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 63c | 105.01$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 67c | 100.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 99.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 99.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 18c | 99.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 96.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 94.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 87.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 19c | 85.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 63c | 84.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 67c | 69.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 60.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 35c | 54.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 58c | 54.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 40c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 53.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 56c | 52.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 46.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 69c | 45.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 55c | 43.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 41.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 40.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…65ccbacked No | 72c | 39.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf644…a9afbacked Yes | 29c | 39.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 56c | 37.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 64c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 33.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 76c | 32.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 62c | 29.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 46c | 29.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 39c | 29.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 27.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 49c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 62c | 23.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 23.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 68c | 23.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 65c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 63c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 73c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 76c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 60°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.