Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ec695e90571fd7e418e1479933ee86855869e48da12a6f78a693aa6f3f9591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 521.05$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.84 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 68c | 489.58$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 459.9$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 415.44$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 27c | 401$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.62 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 20c | 400.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 33c | 299.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 279.12$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.97 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 250.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 243.51$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 71c | 237.94$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 218.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 67c | 209.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 206.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 201.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 198.39$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 62c | 196.34$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 40c | 194.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 188.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 182.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…5571backed Yes | 24c | 165.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 156.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 62c | 137.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 127.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 49c | 127.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 126.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 124.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 120.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 112.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 108.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…fb66backed No | 59c | 103.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 70c | 89.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 88.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 86.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 18c | 85.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 75c | 79.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 65c | 79.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 80c | 78.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 43c | 78.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 76c | 77.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 29c | 72.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 72c | 69.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 49c | 67.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a61…8c32backed Yes | 70c | 65.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 74c | 63.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 62.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 67c | 62.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 56.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 49.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 33c | 49.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…9d97backed Yes | 42c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 44.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…bcf1backed Yes | 38c | 44.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…fdb9backed No | 77c | 44.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 64c | 41.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 32c | 41.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 41.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 76c | 38.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 46c | 35.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 61c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 74c | 34.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 42c | 33.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…492bbacked No | 71c | 33.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 66c | 32.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 32.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 65c | 31.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 31.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…2fe2backed Yes | 34c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 41c | 29.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e3…cda2backed Yes | 42c | 29.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 29.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 56c | 28.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 72c | 27.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…c553backed No | 74c | 26.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…7e66backed Yes | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 25.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…aa9ebacked No | 69c | 25.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 41c | 25.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked No | 58c | 24.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8e49backed Yes | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 59c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 60c | 22.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…3cc3backed Yes | 80c | 21.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 78c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 58c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 19.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 19.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 74c | 19.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…b3c9backed No | 76c | 17.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 75c | 17.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 60°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.