Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62c9c1cd39167bb36391ee706e12f4d696a44b9b1b5f890d58d2847932171ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 13c | 1,679$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 80c | 1,076$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.54 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 547.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 538.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 500.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 492.66$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 26c | 490.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 16c | 476.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 394.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 7c | 356.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 11c | 344.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 9c | 332.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 76c | 272.29$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 254.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 14c | 254.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 21c | 236.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 18c | 226.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 14c | 219.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 11c | 195.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 191.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 18c | 191.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 17c | 176.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 169.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 10c | 164.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 155.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 15c | 143.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 116.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 115.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 111.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 110.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 19c | 109.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 11c | 103.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 100.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 14c | 98.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 17c | 98.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 93.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 91.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 69c | 87.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 71c | 86.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 13c | 83.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 79c | 76.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 77c | 46.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 40.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 75c | 29.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 22.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…516abacked No | 71c | 18.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 60°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.