Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe147e6d2e4ccd9782867084b359ec4ea9b2cfad755de86498cfa882aeebaf962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4f1…d28abacked Yes | 40c | 378.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 344.26$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 265.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 245$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 233.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 213.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.28 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 170.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 47c | 159.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 117.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 112.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 62c | 111.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 36c | 110.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 104.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 99.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 39c | 92.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 87.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 85.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 60c | 78.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed No | 71c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 64c | 71.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 36c | 69.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 69.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 68.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 68.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 65c | 50.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 45.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 64c | 39.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 38c | 35.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 33.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 71c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 37c | 32.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 65c | 32.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 36c | 31.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 38c | 30.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 59c | 19.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.