NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe16d04b42a43b3ad29aa12c1310c6f3a1cf2953fc30905ff1e3550b3564c5cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 49c | 1,364$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.86 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Under | 44c | 902.52$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.41 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +9.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 55c | 550.56$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 410.82$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 385.23$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 38c | 262.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.64 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…2dbdbacked Under | 39c | 258.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.67 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 251.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 59c | 236$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…ee64backed Under | 44c | 181.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Over | 48c | 124.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 61c | 120.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 51c | 117.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb8…6eeebacked Under | 47c | 87.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 69.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 60c | 63.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 59.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 17c | 59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 55c | 55.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…723fbacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 49c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7141backed Under | 34c | 43.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 55c | 40.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 79c | 23.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Over | 58c | 21.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 73c | 15.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 3.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-2.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.