NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde450faae2631d07516db164f5e5280db943a58d01c4f35f8e2e18d638bd782c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 46c | 4,786$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.42 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 54c | 3,156$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.1 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 46c | 2,180$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.2 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 49c | 1,100$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.88 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 46c | 1,050$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,029$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.68 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 754.83$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.14 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 54c | 718.33$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.9 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…fe43backed Under | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0772…ac49backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…c330backed Over | 51c | 587.22$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8222…df0dbacked Under | 49c | 573.98$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b76…cb7bbacked Over | 52c | 573.73$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd4…fe55backed Under | 53c | 569.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 62c | 568.34$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.34 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…c237backed Under | 52c | 567.41$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…1264backed Under | 53c | 566.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044a…6d11backed Over | 52c | 564.33$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 49c | 559.26$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…e10cbacked Over | 54c | 527.85$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 510.34$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.48 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 506.38$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 49c | 504.21$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.15 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…ddd3backed Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f23…7333backed Under | 49c | 490.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 49c | 490.19$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…64a7backed Under | 49c | 488.24$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…3ce0backed Under | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df0…0bcfbacked Under | 50c | 446$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 419.4$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.91 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Under | 48c | 409.33$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 49c | 355.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.32 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 53c | 310.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked Over | 27c | 280.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 263.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…188fbacked Over | 54c | 218$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 51c | 197.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 39c | 192.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…10a7backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Over | 54c | 157.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed Under | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 54c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Over | 48c | 109.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 49c | 106.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 46c | 98.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 55c | 96.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Over | 52c | 76.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047c…3ce4backed Over | 54c | 76.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 37c | 68.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 56c | 54.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 53.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 51c | 53.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 47c | 52.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 71c | 32.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 32.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 49c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2551…217cbacked Over | 54c | 30.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…bc39backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…f556backed Under | 65c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775f…c82dbacked Over | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…ac19backed Over | 52c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…6054backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 3.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Under won
- Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-2.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.