Commodities · resolved market
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17ce45fdbc640b9068d5716b6cba29ad40b38a1ce90288e87f5317dc4b54af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 74c | 2,146$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.36 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 78c | 1,432$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.41 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 21c | 1,070$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.41 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 24c | 413.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.07 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed Up | 69c | 229.16$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 77c | 123$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Down | 21c | 109.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 56c | 96.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Down | 32c | 94.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Up | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Up | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30df…fa6cbacked Down | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…73f6backed Up | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…5600backed Up | 79c | 49.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Up | 59c | 48.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 78c | 29.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 76c | 21.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed Up | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Up | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.