TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc741…73f6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT2864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+87.5%+$20.85
Timberwolves vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.47
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$8.4
Spread: Bucks (-10.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.65
Mavericks vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.7
Spread: Spurs (-18.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$18.45
Spread: Magic (-10.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Timberwolves vs. Magic: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$13.98
Bucks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$13.3
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$6.87
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$8.15
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.83
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$34.68
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.08
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.8
Magic vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Jazz vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.29
Hornets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.6
Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$13.98
Grizzlies vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$7
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$28.6
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Devils vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.05
Blue Jackets vs. Sabresbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)backed Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.45
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)backed Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.63
Blues vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.38
Capitals vs. Rangersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.95
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.49
Flames vs. Ducksbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$34.2
Canadiens vs. Devilsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+63.8%+$9.02
Jets vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.6
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Predators vs. Kingsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$29.7
Red Wings vs. Flyersbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$4.95
All 16 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group Bbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 13?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.