NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4f3ad4ce84430dd24783167a2438a2f4e984d8abde1dc3c7e49a0eb20a5a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 51c | 12,164$6,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,960.46 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 9,284$4,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,516.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 14c | 2,183$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Under | 49c | 1,962$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.65 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 52c | 1,677$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.96 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 1,480$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.1 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 49c | 1,480$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.1 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 49c | 1,480$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.1 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 49c | 989.18$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.7 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 53c | 905.57$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…139cbacked Over | 52c | 897.2$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 78c | 636.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…376abacked Under | 48c | 632.31$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.51 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 595.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.97 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 52c | 560.38$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 459.68$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 53c | 458.38$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.44 | 192 | 58.3%112 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 52c | 417.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.45 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea3…a8aebacked Over | 52c | 369.3$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.26 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 22c | 355.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb8…0723backed Over | 52c | 351.31$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 51c | 330.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 299.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 13c | 275.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 14c | 205$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 208 | 37.5%78 W · 130 L | +38.2wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 49c | 203.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 47c | 154.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 52c | 150.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 131.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 21c | 120.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 21c | 120.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 116.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 12c | 104.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Under | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 47c | 95.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Over | 53c | 95.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 73.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 52c | 70.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 362 | 47.5%172 W · 190 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Under | 48c | 68.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…7f4ebacked Over | 53c | 63.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…3e17backed Under | 49c | 53.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…73f6backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Under | 44c | 43.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…4adabacked Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 52c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 59c | 28.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad0…d8e4backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17c…b22bbacked Over | 52c | 26.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e7…fca5backed Over | 73c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 69 | 62.3%43 W · 26 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 50c | 26.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb319…f596backed Over | 52c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5this page
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. MavericksMagic won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.