NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a4d9dd9921e716544c64a14b64d3f30411c5dc3cc24422cf48e3cfae798136
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 53c | 2,432$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.41 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 2,349$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.07 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 10c | 1,625$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 1,182$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.62 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 762.85$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.85 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 17c | 558.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 496.63$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 415.78$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 40c | 369.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 58c | 333.62$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 9c | 283.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…66e4backed Over | 79c | 248.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Over | 60c | 229.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 18c | 215.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Under | 39c | 214.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 110 | 33.6%37 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 26c | 203.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 40c | 199.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 288 | 52.1%150 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 40c | 196.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 45c | 158.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 140.23$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 57c | 118.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Over | 62c | 117.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 42c | 111.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 44c | 101.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 38c | 83.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 56c | 82.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 74.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6c…e9a0backed Under | 42c | 68.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 18c | 65.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 60c | 63.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 56c | 60.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba0…980fbacked Over | 75c | 52.73$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 47.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 38c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…2eaabacked Under | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4f…63f3backed Under | 43c | 44.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6caa…4fb3backed Under | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf20…5be2backed Under | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed Over | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd421…8531backed Over | 74c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 56c | 25.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 58c | 25.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed Over | 56c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 58c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Over | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Over | 60c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5this page
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Magic vs. MavericksMagic won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.