NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x608efd44a45bd3f2341c892c67a5542e5bab9f3aa02a30469b4f91f2fc787c6e

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x32ed…f960backed Over	59c	4,143$2,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,715.41	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe49d…ff91backed Over	57c	4,058$2,310 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,748.92	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	50c	3,483$1,738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,737.67	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under	47c	2,966$1,397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,396.56	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	37c	1,463$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.84	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Over	51c	1,413$721 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.46	144	41%59 W · 85 L	-12.8wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	47c	1,357$635 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Over	76c	1,296$986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310.51	604	44.2%267 W · 337 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	45c	1,250$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over	79c	628.95$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.95	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Over	53c	613$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.11	194	34.5%67 W · 127 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-20%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Under	48c	576.44$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.69	140	49.3%69 W · 71 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	50c	566.62$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$283.14	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c50…2de6backed Under	47c	524.76$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.64	168	45.2%76 W · 92 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Under	14c	500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	208	37.5%78 W · 130 L	+38.2wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+115.2%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over	50c	484.25$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$241.75	564	47.9%270 W · 294 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	46c	475.23$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.68	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…da99backed Under	41c	433.69$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.64	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked Over	54c	410.63$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187	54	63%34 W · 20 L	+5.6wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under	49c	404.08$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	813	49.4%402 W · 411 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over	51c	387.68$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.42	349	53%185 W · 164 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	52c	314.09$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.76	1,901	48.7%925 W · 976 L	+6.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Under	46c	299.99$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	155	43.9%68 W · 87 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	12c	291.16$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.44	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	46c	272.51$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.58	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb996…038cbacked Under	48c	263.51$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.49	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Under	47c	240.11$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.85	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d29…c9eebacked Over	56c	217.5$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.14	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	50c	207.54$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.77	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over	53c	205.04$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.87	492	49.8%245 W · 247 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f1…3fd9backed Under	50c	194$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Under	48c	193.76$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	288	52.1%150 W · 138 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Under	46c	189.13$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	21c	174.21$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	49c	161.39$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.08	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under	48c	159.85$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.73	544	43%234 W · 310 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Over	54c	150.15$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.07	1,141	48%548 W · 593 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Under	49c	148.38$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.71	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under	20c	145.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	378	48.7%184 W · 194 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	72c	143.65$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.22	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under	47c	133.61$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	367	49.6%182 W · 185 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa15f…ad19backed Over	52c	121.4$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.27	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…6ababacked Over	53c	119.18$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.02	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over	64c	115.91$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.18	1,036	47.6%493 W · 543 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Under	49c	106.76$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.31	172	50.6%87 W · 85 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over	52c	95.54$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.95	195	50.8%99 W · 96 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Under	46c	94.41$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.43	775	49.2%381 W · 394 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08f1…705cbacked Under	47c	93.92$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	162	45.1%73 W · 89 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Under	47c	92.95$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.69	202	49%99 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x199f…7e77backed Over	75c	91.93$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.98	68	61.8%42 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce06…c99dbacked Over	53c	84.69$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.79	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	20c	83.3$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Under	14c	75.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf433…2464backed Under	53c	68.39$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	144	44.4%64 W · 80 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under	21c	60.97$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ca…d910backed Under	48c	60.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	50c	58.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Under	50c	58.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	154	49.4%76 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6472…81e3backed Under	48c	58.13$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	166	47%78 W · 88 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	60c	53.68$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.47	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over	52c	52.67$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.26	148	52.7%78 W · 70 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8900…a444backed Over	55c	45.94$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	77	51.9%40 W · 37 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7133…69d6backed Under	48c	42.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa209…d90ebacked Over	54c	42.17$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	71	64.8%46 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked Over	53c	39.51$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.55	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	70c	39.29$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.87	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250b…383fbacked Over	54c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.56	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	55c	35.38$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.92	227	56.8%129 W · 98 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec3…2c88backed Under	48c	30.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	57	61.4%35 W · 22 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5587…6d07backed Under	48c	30.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	99	66.7%66 W · 33 L	+8.4wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.1	192	46.4%89 W · 103 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Under	48c	29.06$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	400	48.3%193 W · 207 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	46c	27.07$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2363…1ac3backed Under	48c	26.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa684…ca71backed Under	50c	23.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-7.0wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7be…908dbacked Over	52c	22.7$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.9	78	46.2%36 W · 42 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	50c	20.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	935	43.6%408 W · 527 L	-32.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Over	67c	18.91$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.31	73	82.2%60 W · 13 L	+18.6wins	+0.26per pick	57cpaid	+45.9%equal weight	71+0.19 edge/pick
0x23e7…fca5backed Over	68c	16.76$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.35	69	62.3%43 W · 26 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event