TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,784 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cec…5326backed Under46c507.01$233 inLost-$233.0368645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over54c504$272 inWon+$231.841,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over58c338.72$196 inWon+$142.732,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under10c336$34 inLost-$33.721,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under19c283.8$54 inLost-$53.9237848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under49c250$123 inLost-$122.52,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over52c187.3$98 inWon+$89.229,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under49c186.98$91 inLost-$90.8893543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Under40c96.4$39 inLost-$38.563531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under42c69.56$29 inLost-$29.222,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x015d…7bc7backed Over58c67.81$39 inWon+$28.486553.8%35 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under44c67.02$29 inLost-$29.4924841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over58c59.68$34 inWon+$25.364,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Over60c52.58$32 inWon+$21.0320837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under22c47.66$10 inLost-$10.4952230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under45c47.28$21 inLost-$21.2755444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba4…fd40backed Under43c46.52$20 inLost-$206628.8%19 W · 47 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under41c35.97$15 inLost-$14.7581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over56c33.48$19 inWon+$14.731,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x899f…3e95backed Over59c33.06$20 inWon+$13.56666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over63c31.09$20 inWon+$11.423,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ec3…2c88backed Under48c30.28$15 inLost-$14.535761.4%35 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under41c28.9$12 inLost-$11.854,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over55c20$11 inWon+$995049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a3…8620backed Over63c19.86$12 inWon+$7.454652.2%24 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed1…0d39backed Over59c18.55$11 inWon+$7.617650%38 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.