TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Francisco Giantsof Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,418 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins26c8,518$2,215 inLost-$2,214.7610,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants74c7,757$5,740 inWon+$2,016.828,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins21c274.17$58 inLost-$58.32,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants74c270.27$200 inWon+$70.273,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants78c168.3$132 inWon+$36.712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed San Francisco Giants74c64.36$48 inWon+$16.7325260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants77c54.64$42 inWon+$12.448,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins21c52.8$11 inLost-$11.0111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43a8…d77fbacked San Francisco Giants79c45.32$36 inWon+$9.5214259.2%84 W · 58 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants74c42.93$32 inWon+$11.161,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants74c16.12$12 inWon+$4.192,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed San Francisco Giants74c15.66$12 inWon+$4.0711255.4%62 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants70c14.3$10 inWon+$4.291,48163.5%940 W · 541 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.