MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572919e04eb1a6803c14faddc3668a5181d948f95287e140bdc647f66fe59c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 6,822$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 6,805$4,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.26 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 6,204$2,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,012.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 4,813$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.85 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 1,253$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.3 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 913.73$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.66 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 510.25$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 312.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 303.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 280.29$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 115.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 90.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Miami Marlins | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 73.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 66.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 52.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 51.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 47.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 45.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 18.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.