MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d3c0dbb24a2bc26a5e48e8806af944a658ce0c40e8e8428486398b8969983ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 10,618$8,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 4,126$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.39 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 2,769$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 1,636$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.39 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 1,540$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.44 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,242$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 24c | 1,205$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 1,171$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 907.98$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.59 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Francisco Giants | 14c | 493$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 39c | 484.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.95 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 481.9$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 454.48$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 298$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 192.86$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 177.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Francisco Giants | 20c | 149.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed San Francisco Giants | 24c | 148.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 114.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 103.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 92.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 29c | 79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 69.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 61.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Francisco Giants | 20c | 58.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 56.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 52.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 37.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.