Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe18b98b83c9018ca31e065fbe9e64ff4ed0ffbb2f57ecc4c0cfb8eeae952d007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Liquid, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Liquid | 26c | 8,144$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.46 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Falcons | 74c | 2,289$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.11 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…3656backed Team Falcons | 74c | 1,315$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Team Falcons | 74c | 1,071$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 985.3$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.82 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…0965backed Team Falcons | 74c | 980$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…df55backed Team Falcons | 74c | 648.65$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid | 22c | 646.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.18 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…59b8backed Team Falcons | 74c | 355$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Liquid | 19c | 317.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Liquid | 26c | 295.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…502ebacked Team Falcons | 74c | 139.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…3212backed Team Falcons | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Falcons | 77c | 104.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…ba78backed Team Liquid | 23c | 81.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Team Falcons | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e96…e128backed Team Liquid | 27c | 56.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Liquid | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Team Falcons | 73c | 44.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Team Falcons | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Falcons | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9a70backed Team Falcons | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.