Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4b503d564139ccce32154114bc2dd079f462595a49102c842310e12e6d3688c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 19,145$9,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,531.25 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 10,387$5,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,234.27 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…c6a0backed Over | 50c | 6,167$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 80c | 2,667$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.12 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…f815backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 70c | 1,844$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.32 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…4e40backed Over | 53c | 1,143$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 56c | 694.65$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.95 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 47c | 635.81$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.97 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…326cbacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…1be1backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Over | 52c | 328.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f4b8backed Over | 53c | 307.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 281.42$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Under | 47c | 253.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…4c30backed Under | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…6562backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Over | 50c | 191.78$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 52c | 182$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Under | 51c | 175.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 53c | 133.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 54c | 129.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Over | 54c | 126.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…45cfbacked Under | 50c | 118.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 49c | 112$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…7bc1backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 68c | 92.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 51c | 90.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 51c | 81.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…1ef2backed Under | 50c | 74.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…96b3backed Over | 57c | 50.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 45.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Over | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8123…f127backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…b241backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…4b54backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 38.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…b343backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…bbdbbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…568abacked Under | 49c | 36.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Under | 49c | 34.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 41c | 33.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 36c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…ffd3backed Under | 51c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed Over | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.