TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Hellenic Championship, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Mackenzie McDonald

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
McDonaldof Mochizuki, McDonald
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7606…2836backed McDonald30c19,477$5,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,564.557857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Mochizuki70c11,347$7,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,943.178052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Mochizuki53c4,677$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.0616644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x188d…c709backed Mochizuki47c2,705$1,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.13560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mochizuki49c2,630$1,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.512,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a1…e5babacked McDonald53c2,516$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.79425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Mochizuki38c2,091$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.936540.8%149 W · 216 L-13.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x947f…fb99backed McDonald53c1,590$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.331216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-65%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Mochizuki57c1,508$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.0475547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Mochizuki49c1,404$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.6537540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…4421backed McDonald71c1,372$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.041353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed McDonald54c1,007$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.098,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed McDonald50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50024841.5%103 W · 145 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Mochizuki53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53059151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed McDonald53c967.14$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.8843042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0406…160fbacked Mochizuki44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9a…e39abacked McDonald56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed McDonald70c857.57$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.272864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6f…740abacked Mochizuki49c838.56$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a84…e271backed Mochizuki69c800$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55213959%82 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed McDonald55c646.46$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.051,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ed…617ebacked McDonald55c633.38$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.386250%31 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Mochizuki52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26029152.6%153 W · 138 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0410…6556backed McDonald47c462.64$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Mochizuki32c454.58$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14422744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8337…2352backed McDonald68c442.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.832458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Mochizuki46c413.49$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18988446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked McDonald48c400$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21034842.2%147 W · 201 L+12.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mochizuki47c393.69$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.442,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc750…cfd3backed Mochizuki75c375.76$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Mochizuki54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021959.4%130 W · 89 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8b…3047backed Mochizuki49c370.29$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.445450%27 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mochizuki31c369.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11573147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mochizuki35c341.4$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e9…ac60backed McDonald54c336.23$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.031040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaea…b079backed McDonald29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2133426.5%9 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed McDonald52c290.76$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.565046%23 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Mochizuki21c280.61$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1328139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Mochizuki45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Mochizuki41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked McDonald59c240.12$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1249749.9%248 W · 249 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf88…3ed6backed McDonald60c202.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.210249%50 W · 52 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Mochizuki46c199.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9222840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…cfadbacked Mochizuki60c196.56$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.673557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb6f…3d0bbacked McDonald54c188.85$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked McDonald55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.825339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed McDonald56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Mochizuki69c173.91$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12069350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed McDonald52c169.65$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.431,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4242…f42ebacked Mochizuki22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…2d85backed McDonald68c146.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed McDonald69c145.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.053141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b1…c973backed Mochizuki44c113.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.993855.3%21 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+44.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x373e…ed77backed Mochizuki43c108.21$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd02a…c712backed McDonald48c102.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.657432.4%24 W · 50 L-7.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed McDonald73c99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.072450%12 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadf9…cdc6backed McDonald62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da6…59fabacked McDonald55c91.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.361330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc13f…ca64backed McDonald74c82.77$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.773158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ceb…1952backed McDonald57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46055%33 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6077…f4f4backed Mochizuki51c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-25.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Mochizuki47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…522dbacked Mochizuki50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2108…9abdbacked McDonald70c57.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.264100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Mochizuki71c56.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4072957.3%418 W · 311 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9494…308abacked McDonald54c53.7$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.74839.6%19 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4691…87d1backed McDonald52c51.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x847e…235cbacked Mochizuki32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6436…5437backed Mochizuki24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed Mochizuki20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103246.9%15 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-31.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8eea…7c06backed McDonald56c40.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e74…d044backed McDonald48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.812156.2%68 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b59…232fbacked Mochizuki40c37.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.173852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dae…a50bbacked Mochizuki50c37.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9215752.2%82 W · 75 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9f…4cc8backed McDonald54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.045036%18 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde0…c132backed McDonald46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ef…3298backed Mochizuki34c33.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba8…a241backed McDonald74c33.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Mochizuki36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.752138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24f9…deaebacked McDonald74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c38…215bbacked McDonald52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.852161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7068…8236backed McDonald52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.852653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd6…8373backed McDonald52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.858755.2%48 W · 39 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bf9…20e2backed McDonald52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92fb…18a3backed McDonald53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed McDonald71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.174463.6%28 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…e7a1backed McDonald72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.784153.7%22 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb56b…7150backed McDonald55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2716564.8%107 W · 58 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed McDonald55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2735157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0e…7b1fbacked McDonald55c27.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.265459.3%32 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa11b…d448backed McDonald64c27.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Mochizuki53c22.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a64…bb41backed McDonald68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.064656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f7…40c8backed McDonald69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.74771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x955f…1edebacked Mochizuki49c20.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea27…19c6backed McDonald73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…ee02backed Mochizuki50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x787c…7ae2backed McDonald56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.82055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ab…4f8dbacked McDonald50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd5…5073backed McDonald70c15.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.