NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe19df6490eede74feaa381a140f98dc0b0afaa6b9798eb18680f6809803a9cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce2f…aa56backed Over | 45c | 3,800$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…2b11backed Under | 55c | 3,800$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,332$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 26c | 563$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.62 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 26c | 549$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.26 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 25c | 500$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 45c | 377.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Under | 55c | 362.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.25 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 26c | 210$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…cd76backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…58c9backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Under | 26c | 178$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 230.5this page
- Nets vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Nets vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Nets vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5Under won
- Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-12.5)Nets won
- Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Nets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.