Dota2 · resolved market
Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1a815856b0bac7aa37d14b732879f41b70c51ea9858626987628f35945aea6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 58c | 3,131$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.26 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Yes | 52c | 1,915$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.58 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked No | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 40c | 1,383$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.57 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 27.3%62 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Yes | 55c | 716.11$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.25 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 688.85$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 37c | 536.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Yes | 50c | 524.08$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.04 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 57c | 477.48$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked No | 47c | 405.41$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 47c | 363.07$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 46c | 350$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 59c | 333$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked No | 46c | 299.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked No | 41c | 200.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 53c | 189.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed No | 37c | 138.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…cfc5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 45c | 96.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 42c | 84.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 60.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 45c | 57.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Yes | 58c | 43.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…a307backed Yes | 53c | 31.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 46c | 30.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed No | 41c | 27.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nigma Galaxy to win 2-0?this page
- L1ga Team to win 2-0?No won
- L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy: Draw (1-1)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.