Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b75e68abde19e1585e9b5b714f4519a142061ff884658b11a9ccb7243a26f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 499.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 22c | 405$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 328.61$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 314.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 295.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 229.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 30c | 225.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 206.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 187.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 73c | 147.94$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 67c | 146.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 125.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 30c | 119.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 115.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 114.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed No | 76c | 91.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 87.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 85.71$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 27c | 82.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 81.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 25c | 80.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 76.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 75.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 67.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 62.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 25c | 62.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 60.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 67c | 57.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 32c | 56.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 27c | 50.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 47.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 47.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 44.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 42.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed No | 80c | 42.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…b89cbacked No | 72c | 41.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 40.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…894ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…c32ebacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 38.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 76c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 66c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 32.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 31.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 78c | 31.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…abc4backed No | 76c | 26.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 26.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 69c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 71c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…c4cebacked No | 75c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.