Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc333c4c7d7368fa9ed80877a94db9a14f7db3d2e4288ba0b5fe22732c1444604
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe86…4a1ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,728$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 796.28$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 645.36$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x599c…e29bbacked Yes | 28c | 585.03$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 15c | 359.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 75c | 260.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 235$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 230.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 203.87$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 184.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 29c | 167.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 77c | 164$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 155.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 152.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 150.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 144.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 139.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 25c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 28c | 103.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 74c | 99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 91.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 81.77$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 27c | 77.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 77.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 73.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 24c | 72.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 71.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 62.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 51.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…7722backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 58c | 46.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 42.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…2377backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 75c | 37.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…c32ebacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 31.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 30.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 74c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.